While some say that unmanned marine systems are a farfetched sci-fi dream of the future, recent advancements in digitization, robotics and artificial intelligence have shown that we may be closer to autonomous vessels sailing our oceans than we think. Rolls-Royce projects that the first remotely-controlled vessels could operate near coastal areas by 2020, and in international waters by 2025. Norwegian fertilizer and chemicals producer, Yara International, announced its “Yara Birkeland” project. The Yara Birkeland will be the world’s first all-electric zero-emissions autonomous container ship and will operate between Herøya and the ports of Brevik and Larvik in Norway by 2020. In 2018, a 170 square kilometer test zone was established off the southwest coast of Finland to carry out various trials with new automation technologies, including testing of cognitive recognition sensors with artificial intelligence, and testing of larger autonomous vessels and their navigation capabilities. Also in 2018, the Finnish company Wärtsilä reported on the first successful fully automatic docking maneuver of an 85 meter long ferry in a Norwegian port, using artificial intelligence sensors to calculate factors such as wind and flow speed, water depth, seabed shape, etc.
These new autonomous systems raise not only technical challenges, but also regulatory ones, which are more complex in shipping than in other transportation branches, since a major part of the activities happens in international waters. Drawing up the most suitable set of regulations to ensure safety in the marine world will be a challenging task that lies in the responsibility of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). This article is the first part of a series, in which I try to shed more light on this topic, which arouses as much excitement, as it sparks controversy.
Ms. Natasha Brown, Media and Communications Officer at IMO kindly agreed to meet with me at the organization’s London headquarters and provide invaluable insight on the topic, including a reality check on the feasibility and possible timeline of the autonomy trend. I would like to thank both Ms. Brown and the IMO for this open discussion.
The IMO is already discussing a comprehensive set of questions, which should result in a legal framework in the foreseeable future. The range of issues on the agenda includes the human component of operations, safety and security, port interactions, pilotage services, and protection of the marine environment for various levels of autonomy in ship operations. In facing the challenges ahead, the IMO has repeatedly emphasized the importance of staying flexible in order to take into account new technologies that could potentially improve the efficiency of shipping. Through the discussion process, the role of humans and the urgent need to ensure safe navigation will be in the foreground.
Defining the Levels of Autonomy
The Shipyard: The IMO has set up a regulatory scoping exercise in which it identifies four different levels of autonomy. Could you explain what they are and their context?
Natasha Brown: The purpose of the analysis is looking at whether regulations allow for different levels of autonomy or whether they would need to be changed in order to allow these new levels of autonomy. We have identified four different levels of autonomy. First – ships with automated processes where seafarers are still on board and they control and operate some systems. That is near to what we have at the moment. Second – remotely controlled ships from the shore with seafarers on board. Third – remotely controlled ships without seafarers on board. And fourth, the fully autonomous, artificial intelligence ship. For each level of autonomy there might be different sets of regulations, or we may be able to incorporate them into the existing framework. We are working on putting forward new rules or guidance, as needed.
Risks and Challenges
Safety considerations are a key factor in each of the identified levels of automation. One challenge for innovators is assuring regulatory bodies, insurance companies, clients and other stakeholders that these systems are at least as reliable as existing ones. For example, of crucial importance will be the smooth and error-free communication between the autonomous systems at sea and the Shore Control Centers (SCC) on land, from where the ships are controlled.
The Shipyard: Whether fully autonomous ships will be feasible on a global scale will depend on their ability to tackle challenges such as port arrivals, high-traffic routes, collision prevention, heavy weather operations, technical failures and emergency situations without a crew on board. What are some critical questions that the IMO is seeking to address in this aspect?
Natasha Brown: If you have a ship breaking down in the middle of the ocean with no crew on board, how will you repair it in reality? Things are going to go wrong at some point, as will all technology no matter how advanced. Will it be feasible to send out people? There are a lot of questions to be answered. On the positive side, we have a number of countries taking part in proposals and studies on the subject.
In addition, cybersecurity is going to be an issue. If everything is to be fully automated, then the risk of security becomes related to that technology. You need trained people who can deal with any issues and make sure that safeguards are in place. We will need to think about how to prevent hackers from attacking the automation system. Most likely, we will still need the human factor for these safeguards.
The Shipyard: A serious challenge is international cooperation, which may not be so easy to achieve, as individual member states all have their own interests. How is the IMO working towards international cooperation and participation in development and innovation?
Natasha Brown: There is room for trials in the regulation, allowing all member states to try out a technology if they can show that it is at least as safe as the current. They have to get permission for a specific trial and there are safeguards put in place for the trials. You cannot just send an autonomous ship in a busy area like the Strait of Dover before proving that it is safe. There are tracking and mandatory reporting systems that need to be put in place in areas where vessels of different nationalities operate. The ships would have to be at a very advanced stage before they would be allowed into busy areas.
I think people need to be aware that this whole process is growing and within that process every single member state can put forward their views. Every single non-governmental organization that has an interest, whether it is the seafarers, the ship masters, or an environmental organization, they all can put in their own research and evidence into this whole exercise. It is very much an exercise involving everybody and their points of view. As we gain more experience with these technologies we can amend the regulations to suit the needs of the industry and to achieve standardization, which has been the case with other systems in the past.
The Shipyard: Another concern in the industry is that the role of the seafarer will disappear with the emergence of fully autonomous ships, leading to major job losses. How high is this risk?
Natasha Brown: In any industry you are going to have changes, as technology comes in. But it is hard to imagine that all the ships around the world will no longer have seafarers. You still need people controlling the ships and you still need engineers. The ships are not going to maintain themselves. How much can you actually fully automate in terms of repairs on a ship? You will still need people in some point of the chain, even if roles change.
Potential Benefits
The Shipyard: As technologies have developed in the past, we have always seen a number of benefits that come with them. In the case of automation in the marine industry, the biggest benefits are likely to be in the form of increased safety, a cleaner environment and a reduction of human error. What will be the role of the international regulator in this aspect?
Natasha Brown: That is the goal, to make sure that any kind of new vessel that comes along or any new level of automation is going to be as safe, if not safer, than what the regulations require at the moment. The regulations would not allow a ship to be less safe. The rules are there to make sure that ships are safe and they don’t pollute. The major benefit will come from using these automated systems to control and monitor operations. For example, they can alert the crew if there is a problem with the engine or with the fuel tank, allowing the crew to react and prevent disaster. The systems can also be helpful in stopping the fouling of hulls, as well as managing water ballast systems, so that you are not harming the species involved in the waters of operation.
Another benefit will come from increasing efficiency and reducing costs. This could, for example be achieved through better ship-port communication. A ship arriving into a busy port could know when to slow down, so that it can arrive a day later when there is a free berth. Taking advantage of these communications allows ships to burn less fuel and be more efficient. Better coordination also improves efficiency and facilitates logistics. At the IMO, we encourage the use of the technologies that are available, in order to achieve the goals that we are setting out in the industry.
Gradual or Sudden Transition?
While there is a lot of talk about sci-fi drone ships and artificial intelligence taking over overnight, in reality the prognosis from the industry seems to be that the transition will be a more gradual one. Initially, the focus will be on smaller vessels operating near the coast, such as small ferries, tugboats, and barges.
The Shipyard: What we see in the first trials, are relatively small vessels that are being built for specific voyages and specific conditions. When can we expect this trend to affect large ships sailing the high seas?
Natasha Brown: If you think about the amount of trade that is carried by sea, more than 10.6 billion tons per year, and if you count all the ships transporting that, it will be hard to suddenly replace all those ships overnight with new autonomous vessels. It will not be feasible. People are not going to suddenly replace all their ships because there are investments and costs involved. With any kind of change in vessels, from what we saw when we went from single-hulled tankers to double-hulled tankers, there has to be a phasing period. We will also need to take into account the demand for trade during the switch process. I don’t think anyone is against the advantages of technology, but people do not want huge changes overnight and you have to take into account the impact on the parties involved. If there is a change, it is likely to be gradual.
Conclusion
Autonomous ships, like all emerging technologies, will carry certain unknown risks and it will be up to the IMO and the member states to recognize them and deal with them as the need arises. It is, after all, in everybody’s interest to stay safe, keep moving, be efficient and not increase risks to security.
See you next week!
The Shipyard